June 2013 Monthly Automotive Sales Forecast
J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Report:
New-Vehicle Retail Sales Are Heating Up with the Start of the Summer Selling Season
WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif.: 21 June 2013 -- New-vehicle retail sales are continuing their positive trend in June, with no signs of letting up at the start of the summer selling season, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by the Power Information Network(R) (PIN) from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.
Retail Light-Vehicle Sales
New-vehicle retail sales in June are projected to come in at 1,118,800 vehicles, which represent a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 13.2 million units, a healthy increase of 500,000 from the May SAAR. Retail transactions are the most accurate measure of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.
U.S. Retail SAAR--June 2012 to June 2013
(in millions of units)
While sales overall are strong, not all segments are selling at the same pace. Sales of premium vehicles account for just 11.7 percent of new-vehicle retail sales thus far in June, down from 12.9 percent in June 2012.
The underperformance of premium light-vehicle sales is largely due to the age of the models in these segments. J.D. Power calculates that the average age--the number of months the vehicle has been in the market since it was introduced or redesigned--of premium models sold in the second quarter of 2013 was 43 months. In comparison, the average age of non-premium models--excluding pickup trucks--is only 34.5 months.
J.D. Power expects that by the second quarter of 2014, the average age of premium products will fall to just 33 months, as new and redesigned products enter the marketplace.
The strong selling pace continues to be matched by strong transaction prices. Thus far in June, the average transaction price of new vehicles is $28,900--the highest ever for the month of June.
"Although the premium segment growth has lagged non-premium, there is some good news for the industry in that the average price of premium vehicles in June is $47,000, up almost 4 percent from June 2012," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice. "New premium vehicles entering the market late this year will also help bolster sales through the second quarter of 2014."
Total Light-Vehicle Sales
Total light-vehicle sales in June 2013 are expected to grow by 12 percent from June 2012 to 1,380,800 units. Fleet sales in June are just 19 percent of total sales. Fleet volume for the month is projected at 262,000 units.
J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons
1,118,800 units(14% higher than June 2012)2
|1,177,391 units||1,021,635 units|
|Total Vehicle Sales|
1,380,800 units(12% higher than June 2012)
|1,442,061 units||1,283,590 units|
|Retail SAAR||13.2 million units||12.7 million units||12.0 million units|
|Total SAAR||15.7 million units||15.2 million units||14.4 million units|
1Figures cited for June 2013 are forecasted based on the first 13 selling days of the month.2The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days in the month (26 days in June 2013 vs. 27 days in June 2012).
LMC Automotive continues to hold the outlook for total light-vehicle sales in 2013 at 15.4 million units, but has increased its forecast for retail light-vehicle sales to 12.6 million units from 12.5 million units, as retail sales growth expands.
"There is little question that the automotive market has strong momentum as we close out the first half of 2013," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. "Looking forward, all the key fundamentals are in alignment to continue the current growth trend, with production capacity limitations being the only major visible risk."
North American Production
North American light-vehicle production through June is up nearly 5 percent, compared with the same period in 2012. Ford's 16 percent increase in production thus far in 2013 is leading all manufacturers, with a significant portion of its increase driven by sales boosts for the new Escape and Fusion, as well as its F-Series pickups.
Vehicle inventory levels in early June are holding at 3.2 million units--a 57-day supply, which is down from 64 days last month.
LMC Automotive's forecast for 2013 North American production remains at 16.0 million units, with capacity utilization now at a lean 90 percent.
About J.D. Power
J.D. Power is a global marketing information services company providing performance improvement, social media and customer satisfaction insights and solutions. The company's quality and satisfaction measurements are based on responses from millions of consumers annually. Headquartered in Westlake Village, Calif., J.D. Power has offices in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information on car reviews and ratings, car insurance, health insurance, cell phone ratings, and more, please visit JDPower.com. J.D. Power is a business unit of McGraw-Hill Financial.
About McGraw Hill Financial
McGraw Hill Financial (NYSE: MHFI), a financial intelligence company, is a leader in credit ratings, benchmarks and analytics for the global capital and commodity markets. Iconic brands include: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, S&P Capital IQ, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Platts, CRISIL, J.D. Power, McGraw Hill Construction and Aviation Week. The Company has approximately 17,000 employees in 27 countries. Additional information is available at www.mhfi.com.
About LMC Automotive
LMC Automotive, formerly J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting, is the premier supplier of automotive forecasts and intelligence to an extensive client base of automotive manufacturer, component supplier, logistics and distribution companies, as well as financial and government institutions around the world. LMC's global forecasting services encompass automotive sales, production and powertrain expertise, as well as advisory capability. LMC Automotive has offices in the United States, the UK, Germany, China and Thailand and is part of the Oxford, UK-based LMC group, the global leader in economic and business consultancy for the agribusiness sector. For more information please visit www.lmc-auto.com.
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